TLDR
- ASML shares rose about 4% to $1,870.48 after deepening its High-NA EUV partnership with Samsung.
- Samsung plans to bring High-NA EUV into high-volume DRAM production by 2028.
- Intel has now processed over one million wafers using ASML’s High-NA systems.
- TSMC plans high-volume High-NA adoption starting in 2030, easing doubts about long-term demand.
- Wall Street rates ASML a Strong Buy, with an average price target implying 29% upside.
ASML Holding stock climbed about 4% to $1,870.48 this week. The move came after the Dutch lithography company deepened its partnership with Samsung around High-NA EUV technology.
The September 8 agreement also covers development of larger, 12-inch photomasks. Samsung plans to bring High-NA EUV into high-volume DRAM production by 2028.
That’s a big deal for ASML. High-NA machines were mostly seen as expensive, experimental tools until recently.
Now they’re turning into real production equipment. Intel has processed more than one million wafers using High-NA systems, and says key production metrics are meeting expectations.
Intel already uses High-NA on select layers of its 18A manufacturing process. That’s the kind of customer validation ASML needed.
Customer Commitments Are Building
TSMC is also in the picture. The foundry giant plans to adopt High-NA for high-volume production starting in 2030.
TSMC is working with ASML on those larger photomasks too. The goal is better scanner productivity and lower chip production costs.
As AI chip designs get more complex, TSMC expects more layers to require High-NA tools. Each extra layer means more demand for ASML’s priciest equipment.
ASML isn’t just waiting around either. The company plans to boost 2027 low-NA EUV capacity by 30%, up from around 65 systems in 2026.
Its 2027 EUV capacity was already close to fully booked back in July. That gives ASML a clear runway to turn orders into actual deliveries.
Risks Still Linger
China is the biggest wildcard here. A Reuters report found that domestically built immersion DUV systems have entered production in China.
Those machines are still far behind ASML’s tech. But if they keep improving, China could lean less on foreign equipment over time.
That matters because China made up about 16% of ASML’s first-half 2026 sales. Export controls already block ASML from selling EUV and some advanced DUV machines there.
Valuation is another thing to watch. ASML trades at more than 32 times forward earnings, which leaves little room for missteps.
Shares are also sitting roughly 48% above a GF Value estimate of about $1,270. Any delay in High-NA adoption could hit the stock harder than usual.
Still, Wall Street stays bullish. Analysts have a Strong Buy consensus based on six Buy ratings over the past three months.
The average price target sits at $2,391.80, implying about 29% upside from current levels. No system-order totals or delivery timelines were disclosed alongside the Samsung announcement.
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