TLDR
- Nvidia reports Q2 earnings on August 26, with revenue guidance of around $91 billion
- Stifel reiterates a $282 price target; Oppenheimer sets a $265 target, both expecting a beat
- NVDA trades at roughly 24.5x forward earnings, about 43% below its five-year average
- Q3 guidance is seen as the bigger story, with consensus expecting $103.5 billion in revenue
- Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $305.86, implying 41% upside
Nvidia stock was up 0.4% in premarket trading at $218.46 on Wednesday, with earnings just days away. The stock is up 17% year-to-date but still trails the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which has surged 66% over the same period.
Earnings are due on August 26. Two major Wall Street firms are already calling for a beat.
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy reiterated a $282 price target this week, expecting Nvidia to top consensus estimates of $2.09 adjusted earnings per share on revenue of $91.96 billion. His target is based on 22 times his fiscal 2028 earnings forecast.
“Earnings season has consistently reinforced the demand case as CSP capex was raised meaningfully,” Roy wrote.
Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer held his $265 price target, pointing out that Nvidia trades at just 16 times his 2027 earnings per share estimate. That compares to an average of over 30 times for AI chip peers.
“Nvidia’s best-in-class margins and AI-driven structural growth make it the undisputed AI infrastructure leader,” Schafer wrote.
Despite massive growth numbers, the stock has not exactly set the world on fire in 2026. Names like Dell and Micron have posted triple-digit gains this year, while Nvidia has largely tracked the broader market.
Why the Stock Looks Cheap
At a market cap of $5.45 trillion, Nvidia trades at around 24.5x forward non-GAAP earnings. That is in line with the industry average and roughly 43% below its own five-year average.
Part of the hesitation comes from a familiar fear: that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta could eventually pull back on data center spending. So far, there are no signs of that. These hyperscalers have indicated capex should increase again in 2027.
Nvidia’s Q1 results showed 85% revenue growth and 140% adjusted EPS growth. The stock barely moved. That pattern has repeated for four straight quarters. Growth has become so expected that only an upside surprise moves the needle.
Nvidia guided Q2 revenue to $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding any China data center compute revenue. Non-GAAP gross margin guidance sits near 75%, roughly flat from Q1.
Q3 Guidance Is the Real Catalyst
The market already expects around $92 billion in Q2 revenue, so a modest beat would confirm what most already believe. Analysts say Q3 guidance is the real number to watch.
Consensus currently puts Q3 revenue at $103.5 billion, implying growth of around 81% year-over-year. Any beat on that estimate, or stronger-than-expected gross margins, could push earnings estimates higher.
The technical picture also looks healthy. Nvidia’s moving averages are stacked in bullish order, with the 50-day SMA sitting at $207, around 5% below the current price.
Of 33 analyst ratings issued in the past three months, 32 are Buy and one is Hold. The average price target stands at $305.86.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
