While on Bloomberg, Nic Carter once again raised the issue of a “quantum deadline” in 2029, one of the industry’s key architects, Adam Back, remains completely calm. His response to warnings that Bitcoin could become “obsolete” and lose Satoshi’s coins boils down to a simple thesis: software protection is evolving faster than the hardware threat.
Back emphasizes that the “2029 deadline” mentioned by Google is a milestone in developing stable quantum computing for cloud services, not a ready-made tool for breaking cryptography. To derive private keys to a Bitcoin wallet, millions of logical qubits with error correction would be required, which, according to most experts, remains a long-term prospect extending beyond the current decade.
How Bitcoin devs get ready to battle quantum computers
Research in post-quantum cryptography for Bitcoin is already at the stage of testing implementations, says Back. Some Bitcoin devs are already creating “safe havens” in the form of quantum-resistant addresses, to which users will be able to transfer their funds via a standard soft fork upgrade.
While quantum computers remain bulky laboratory systems operating at ultra-low temperatures, Bitcoin’s code can be modified and deployed across the network within weeks. Back notes with irony that software research is progressing “much faster” than fundamental breakthroughs in semiconductor physics.
In response to Carter’s concerns that a quantum breakthrough could expose Satoshi’s “1 million BTC,” Adam Back is convinced 2029 is not the end of the road, but simply another stage of development.
Instead of reacting with panic, it is more prolific to monitor progress in proposals such as BIP-361 and other signature upgrade initiatives. The quantum threat is real as a scientific concept, but as a practical problem for Bitcoin, it is already being addressed.
