TLDR
- Baird analyst Mig Dobre upgraded Deere (DE), AGCO, CNH Industrial, and Titan Machinery to Buy from Hold.
- Baird raised its Deere price target to $800 from $640, one of only two targets above $800 per FactSet.
- The upgrades are based on improving farm fundamentals pointing to a North America large ag equipment recovery in 2027.
- Mid-2027 corn futures are now above farmer breakevens, with soybean prices also improving.
- Baird sees Deere’s earnings power reaching $25 per share in 2027 and mid-$30s in 2028.
Baird analyst Mig Dobre upgraded Deere (DE) to Buy from Hold on Monday, raising his price target to $800 from $640. That makes it only the second price target above $800 for the stock, according to FactSet.
Deere stock was trading up 0.9% at $635.93 in premarket trading following the news.
Along with Deere, Dobre also upgraded AGCO, CNH Industrial, and Titan Machinery to Buy from Hold. His AGCO target moved to $150 from $120, CNH to $15 from $11, and Titan to $29 from $20.
AGCO was up 1.4% at $115 in premarket, CNH gained 1.6% to $11.87, and Titan jumped 4.1% to $18.59.
Farm Fundamentals Driving the Call
The core of Baird’s thesis is a recovering agricultural market. Dobre pointed to mid-2027 corn futures now trading above farmer breakeven levels, with soybean prices also improving.
He also noted deteriorating crop conditions and 2026/2027 stocks-to-use ratios as signs of sustainable price momentum. That, in turn, should drive higher farmer margins per acre in 2027, which closely track future equipment demand.
Farmers have had a tough run. Benchmark corn prices peaked above $8 per bushel in 2022 and started 2026 below $4.50. Higher crop prices mean more money in farmers’ pockets, and that money tends to find its way into new equipment orders.
Deere’s own numbers tell that story. In calendar year 2022, the company posted nearly $50 billion in sales. Sales in 2026 are expected to come in below $42 billion. Wall Street sees that recovering to around $45 billion in 2027.
Early Order Programs Signal Demand Recovery
Baird also pointed to early order program commentary as a positive sign. Planters and sprayers are showing mid-single-digit percentage increases versus last year’s completed program.
The firm said this wording suggests the final numbers could come in even higher and gives early visibility into a production and precision agriculture recovery.
If crop fundamentals play out as Baird expects, those early order numbers may end up understating actual demand for 2027 and carrying that momentum into 2028.
Baird sees Deere’s earnings power nearing $25 per share in 2027 and climbing to the mid-$30s in 2028, up from the current $17.99 per share.
Deere reported Q3 earnings per share of $5.10, beating consensus estimates by $0.41. That result included $110 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, contributing roughly $0.29 per share.
Truist Securities holds a $804 price target on the stock. DA Davidson raised its target to $760 after strong agricultural equipment margins beat forecasts. JPMorgan’s target sits at $585.
Coming into Monday, Deere stock was up about 35% year to date.
Of the analysts covering Deere, 58% rate it a Buy. For AGCO that figure is 42%, for CNH it is 59%, and three of four analysts covering Titan now rate it a Buy.
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