TLDR
- SpaceX is targeting a $135 share price, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of around $1.77 trillion
- Analysts say crypto is being used as a “funding currency” for the IPO, with capital rotating out of digital assets
- Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, adding to bearish sentiment
- Over $2 billion was withdrawn from crypto ETFs during May alone
- Crypto exchanges are already seeing over $2.7 billion in cumulative volume on SpaceX-linked perpetual futures
SpaceX’s long-awaited IPO is set to launch Thursday, and analysts are warning it could put more downward pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The offering is expected to be one of the largest public listings in history.
Capital Rotation Out of Crypto
SpaceX is targeting $135 per share to raise $75 billion, giving the company a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion. The company has reportedly set aside 30% of shares for retail investors, an unusual move for a deal of this size.
Analysts say retail crypto investors are among the most likely to redirect funds toward the offering. Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at GSR, put it plainly: “Crypto is a funding currency for a lot of this. We’ve got to find $75 billion for this IPO, and it’s got to come from somewhere.”
Thomas Puech, CEO of crypto firm INDIGO, said SpaceX and crypto are competing for the same pool of risk capital. He described artificial intelligence as the “sexier trade at the moment,” suggesting investors may be drawn away from digital assets.
Jeff Park, an adviser at Bitwise, said Bitcoin is being used to fund what he called “hot ball of money trades,” naming SpaceX and Anthropic as examples. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, echoed that view, saying investor anticipation for IPOs like SpaceX is pushing Bitcoin’s price lower.
Bitcoin recently traded near $61,800, more than 50% below its record high. The asset also recorded its biggest weekly drop since late 2022.
Crypto Market Pressure Mounting
Selling pressure in crypto has been building for weeks. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold 32 Bitcoin earlier this year — its first sale since 2022. The move rattled sentiment across the market.
Crypto ETFs saw more than $2 billion in outflows during May, according to CF Benchmarks. Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, said some of that money is moving into equities, though he noted it is not clear how much is going directly into SpaceX.
Strategy then bought another 1,550 Bitcoin on Monday, but the purchase did little to shift market mood.
SpaceX-Linked Crypto Products Gain Traction
Despite the potential for capital rotation, SpaceX’s IPO has already created trading activity within crypto markets.
SpaceX perpetual futures are trading at around $155, above the $135 IPO price. These products have generated over $385 million in open interest and $2.7 billion in cumulative volume across exchanges including Hyperliquid, Binance, and OKX, according to trading infrastructure firm Talos.
Bitget said its tokenized SpaceX IPO subscription grew from $3 million to $13 million as demand surged. Crypto exchanges Kraken, Bybit, and Robinhood also offer access to SpaceX IPO shares or tokenized versions of the stock.
Robinhood is offering European users tokenized derivatives tied to SpaceX shares, a product it launched nearly a year ago.
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