TLDR
- European natural gas benchmark TTF futures fell more than 5% on Friday, hitting a two-week low.
- The drop came after President Trump said a U.S.-Iran peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend.
- Trump also called off planned U.S. military strikes on Iran, easing fears of a wider conflict.
- The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global LNG supplies, had been a key risk factor.
- Iran has not confirmed a final deal, keeping markets cautious despite the price relief.
European gas prices fell sharply on Friday after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump raised hopes of a breakthrough in nuclear talks with Iran. The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas contract dropped more than 5% to around €47 per megawatt-hour, its lowest level in two weeks.
Trump said a peace deal could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend. He also said he had cancelled planned U.S. military strikes on Iran. The remarks sent energy markets lower as traders pulled back on bets that a major supply disruption was near.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz has been at the center of market concern in recent weeks. The waterway handles around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies. A blockade or military conflict in the region could squeeze supply to Europe and other buyers.
Earlier this week, Trump had threatened to seize Iran’s Kharg Island and take control of its oil and gas markets. Those comments pushed gas prices near multi-week highs and kept traders on edge heading into summer.
BREAKING: President Trump says the US will be “hitting Iran very hard tonight” and announces that the US will be “taking Kharg Island” in the “not too distant future.”
President Trump also says the US will “assume total control” of Iran’s oil and gas markets, “much like we have… pic.twitter.com/uvBNjEkE5W
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 11, 2026
Europe has been especially exposed because its underground storage levels are already running below last year’s levels. Any tightening of global LNG supply could have pushed prices even higher during the summer filling season.
Qatar is a major LNG exporter that ships through the Strait of Hormuz. While Europe gets much of its gas from pipelines and Atlantic-basin suppliers, it still competes for cargoes on the global market.
Markets Cautious Despite the Price Drop
Despite the sharp drop in prices, traders are not fully convinced a deal is done. Iran has not officially confirmed the existence of a final framework agreement, though officials said the main points had been finalized.
The British natural gas contract also fell around 2% on Friday, touching a one-month low at the open before settling slightly higher.
Crude oil also dropped to two-month lows on the same news. Trump’s comments about a peace deal were described by analysts as the most concrete sign yet of a diplomatic breakthrough.
The ICE Dutch TTF contract, Europe’s main gas price reference, fell below €47, touching €46.19 at one point. That is down from levels above €50 that had been seen earlier in the week.
The geopolitical risk premium that had built up over weeks of U.S.-Iran tensions was quickly being unwound by markets. But until signatures appear on a formal deal, traders are expected to stay alert.
Any return of hostilities or collapse in talks could quickly reverse Friday’s price drop and push European gas back toward recent highs.
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