Over the past week, the AI and memecoin sectors have recorded the two most bullish performances. Dogecoin [DOGE], as the market’s largest memecoin, broke out past a key local high and was trading above the $0.11-level at press time.
However, its bullishness in recent days was likely just part of a pullback. The 1-day chart showed that DOGE has been laboring under a bearish trend for many months now. The 10/10 crash last year flipped its long-term trend downward, and the memecoin has not recovered from it yet.
The swing structure of DOGE was bearish. Using the downward impulse move in late January and early February, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels was plotted.
The internal structure saw a bullish flip (green), but the swing structure remained bearish. In other words, the break of $0.103 does not mean anything more than short-term bullishness.
The $0.109 and $0.117 levels were highlighted as the key resistances. This golden pocket appeared to have instigated a rejection in the last 48 hours of trading.
Is DOGE’s rally under threat?
AMBCrypto had already highlighted the risk of profit-taking earlier in May. An examination of Santiment metrics suggested that this threat was amplified in recent days.
Over the past six weeks, the Mean Coin Age has been rapidly falling. This alluded to network-wide distribution and dormant tokens over six months moving in large numbers – An indication of selling intent.
At the same time, the price slowly rallied towards the $0.117 resistance, dragging the 1-month and 6-month MVRV ratios to their highest values since June 2025 and September 2025, respectively.
The rising MVRV implied that many short-term holders were coming into profits, or towards breakeven.
Traders’ call to action – Sell!
Dogecoin’s market structure was bearish, and the on-chain metrics suggested there was a threat from profit-taking. The revisit to the $0.109-$0.117 golden pocket presented a viable selling opportunity.
A sustained rally beyond the $0.127 swing high would invalidate this bearish idea.
Final Summary
- The AI and memecoin sectors have been strong performers over the past week, with DOGE up by 4.5%.
- Rejection from $0.117 could turn into a long-term bearish continuation, especially after considering the short-term holders’ spiking profits.
