Key Takeaways:
- JD Vance’s net job approval dropped 21 points from January 2025 to April 2026, per CNN polling data.
- Polymarket’s 2028 presidential market hit $521.6M in volume, with Vance leading at 18.9% odds.
- Kalshi gives Vance a 21% chance in 2028, but Gavin Newsom at 17% is closing the gap fast.
JD Vance Approval Hits Lowest VP Rating in Modern Era as 2028 Speculation Builds on Prediction Markets
CNN data analyst Harry Enten flagged the drop in a recent segment, citing polling that places Vance’s net job approval at -18 as of early April 2026. A CNN/SSRS survey from late March showed 37% approval against 62% disapproval. In January 2025, the same measure sat at 41% approve, 58% disapprove. Civiqs, polling April 8, put his favorability at 37% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Enten described the early-term net rating as the lowest recorded for any vice president in modern polling.
The “most unpopular VP in U.S. history” framing gets repeated often, but it carries an asterisk. Historical vice presidential polling is sparse before the last few decades. Former VP Dan Quayle and former VP Dick Cheney both saw unfavorables climb into the 60% range during their tenures, though not necessarily at the same stage in their first terms. Former VP Kamala Harris faced similar claims during her time in office. The comparison matters most as a directional signal, not a settled historical verdict.
The drivers behind the decline are not difficult to trace. U.S. military involvement in strikes on Iranian sites has coincided with gas prices climbing above $4 per gallon nationally and broad disapproval of the administration’s handling of inflation. Some surveys show only 27% of respondents approve of the administration’s inflation management. Voter dissatisfaction with cost-of-living pressures has held firm even as underlying economic data shows GDP growth projections around 2% and unemployment near 4.3 to 4.4%. Public perception of the economy and how the administration actually manages it have diverged sharply.
Tariffs have added to the pressure. Broad trade actions, threatened 50% tariffs on countries aiding Iran, and ongoing supply chain friction have driven consumer goods prices higher in the public mind, regardless of the underlying data. That perception gap is politically damaging heading into the 2026 midterms.
Coalition erosion has also become visible. Voter groups that shifted toward the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024, including Latinos, younger voters, and independents, have shown measurable pullback in 2026 polling. Non-college white voters in certain surveys have also softened. Vance’s numbers track closely with President Trump‘s own approval, which has fallen to the low-to-mid 30s in several recent polls from CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, and UMass.
On Polymarket, the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election market has generated $521.6 million in total trading volume. Vance currently holds an 18.9% win probability, with more than $10.2 million in individual contract volume. California Gov. Gavin Newsom sits at 16.9% with the highest individual volume among top candidates at $14.1 million.
Sen. Marco Rubio holds 9.5% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) sits at 5.5%. Long-shot volume on that platform has produced some striking numbers: LeBron James and Kim Kardashian, each holding 1% odds, have generated $46.4 million and $32.8 million in trading activity, respectively. Traders are clearly positioning early and, in some cases, speculatively.
Kalshi‘s 2028 market, with $28.9 million in total volume, shows a similar picture at the top. Vance leads at 21%, Newsom follows at 17%, and Rubio sits third at 13%. On the Democratic side, Ocasio-Cortez holds 6.4%, Jon Ossoff 4.5%, Josh Shapiro 3.6%, and Kamala Harris 3.5%. The Republican bench trails the leaders: Donald Trump sits at 2.6%, Ron DeSantis at 1.9%, and Tucker Carlson at 1.9%. Non-traditional entries include JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith, both at 0.9%.
Vance retains strong support within the Republican base. That has not changed. But the broader approval numbers and the tightening gap with Newsom on both platforms reflect a political position that is less comfortable than it was 15 months ago.
Polling aggregates carry margins of error, and public sentiment can shift quickly. A sound and long-lasting ceasefire in Iran, easing gas prices, or a break in economic anxiety could stabilize the trend line. Midterm dynamics tend to punish the party in power when pocketbook concerns dominate, and right now they do.
The 2028 race is still two and a half years away. The betting markets are open, and the field is wide. Vance leads them both, but the margin is thinner by the day.
