Rocket Lab vs AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Should You Watch in 2026? – CoinCentral

TLDR

• Rocket Lab grew revenue 38% to $601.8 million in 2025, with a record $1.85 billion backlog
• Rocket Lab won an $816 million Space Development Agency contract, boosting its government credentials
• AST SpaceMobile reported $70.9 million in full-year 2025 revenue, still early in its commercial build
• AST has over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity to fund satellite deployment
• Wall Street prefers Rocket Lab, rating it Moderate Buy vs a Reduce consensus for AST

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are two of the most talked-about space stocks right now. But they are very different companies, with very different risk profiles. One is building a real, diversified business. The other is betting on a technology that could change mobile connectivity forever.

Rocket Lab posted strong numbers in 2025. Revenue climbed 38% to $601.8 million. Fourth-quarter revenue hit a record $179.7 million. The company ended the year with a backlog of $1.85 billion, up 73% from the year before. That backlog gives investors a clearer picture of future income than most space companies can offer.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

The business has also moved well beyond just launching rockets. Product revenue reached $371.6 million in 2025, while service revenue came in at $230.2 million. Rocket Lab now builds spacecraft, components, and systems for national security customers.

Rocket Lab’s Government Contracts Give It Stability

The company won an $816 million contract with the Space Development Agency. That win shows Rocket Lab is being trusted with large, long-term government work. Its Neutron medium-lift rocket is being positioned as the next major growth driver.

Despite all of this, Rocket Lab is still not profitable. The company posted a net loss of $198.2 million in 2025. Management also guided for another adjusted EBITDA loss in the first quarter of 2026. Investors are still pricing in future scale, not current earnings.

AST SpaceMobile is a very different story. The company is trying to build a space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to standard smartphones, no special hardware needed. If it works at scale, it could serve markets that traditional satellite services have never reached.

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AST is still early in that journey. Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $70.9 million. The fourth quarter alone brought in $54.3 million, driven by gateway deliveries, mobile network operator partners, and government milestones.

AST SpaceMobile’s Cash Position Buys It Time

The company said it had $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at year-end 2025. After additional financing in early 2026, pro forma liquidity topped $3.9 billion. That gives AST room to keep deploying satellites without an immediate funding crisis.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

AST has also locked in over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from partners. That is a meaningful number for a company that only recently started generating revenue. But it is still deeply loss-making, and its future depends heavily on launch speed and network performance.

Wall Street’s view reflects the difference. Rocket Lab holds a Moderate Buy consensus, with 2 Strong Buys, 7 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell. AST SpaceMobile carries a Reduce consensus, with 2 Buys, 6 Holds, and 3 Sells.

Final Thoughts

Analysts are more comfortable with Rocket Lab’s current operating model. AST’s upside is seen as real but harder to underwrite at this stage.  Rocket Lab is the more developed business with more revenue, more diversification, and stronger analyst support. AST is the higher-risk bet with a larger potential payoff if its satellite broadband vision plays out.

Rocket Lab has the stronger foundation right now. AST SpaceMobile has the bigger dream. Which one makes sense depends entirely on how much risk an investor is willing to take on.