TLDR
- NIO has reclaimed both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which are now sloping higher
- A bullish RSI divergence and big volume spikes on price advances point to fading selling pressure
- A double bottom base has formed with a pivot at $5.79, with a price target of $8 in the second half of 2026
- Options activity is heating up — 58,591 call contracts traded with a put/call ratio of just 0.30
- Peer XPeng (XPEV) is up 14% this week, adding weight to a broader Chinese EV recovery signal
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NIO has been a tough hold. After topping out above $60 in early 2021, the stock spent years grinding lower before finding its footing in single digits. Now, for the first time in a while, the charts are telling a different story.
The stock was trading around $5.60 Thursday, up roughly 19% on the week — which would be its best weekly gain since late August 2025, if it holds through Friday’s close.
The technical setup is drawing attention. NIO has reclaimed both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages this week, and both are now sloping higher. That’s a clean shift from where the stock was just months ago.
A bullish RSI divergence has formed, with higher RSI lows even as price made new lows. This pattern often signals that downward momentum is running out of steam. Volume is backing that up — big spikes on up days are a classic sign of institutional money moving in.
The stock also pulled off a clean retest of a bull flag breakout from last August. A double bottom base has now set up with a pivot of $5.79. The trigger for that pattern came from a bearish island reversal that completed with a 7.3% gap down on December 31. NIO then formed a bullish hammer candle on March 3, and the very next session completed a bullish island reversal to the upside.
The upside target being floated is $8 by the second half of 2026 — a 42% move from current levels. The bull case stays intact above $4.75.
Longer-Term Picture
Zoom out to the five-year weekly chart and the bottoming process becomes clearer. Since the start of 2024, NIO has been consolidating in what looks like a base-building phase. Since last October, the right clavicle of a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has been forming.
If the $8 breakout level is cleared later in 2026, the longer-term target on this pattern is around $13 by early 2027.
Accumulation has been on full display since last summer, with buyers stepping in consistently to defend lower levels.
Options Market Is Watching Too
The options market is picking up on the move. On Thursday, 58,591 call contracts changed hands in NIO. Near-term contracts for March 13 and March 26 expirations accounted for roughly 19,900 of those. The put/call ratio sits at just 0.30 — a low reading that shows traders are buying calls at a much higher rate than puts.
Implied volatility has also ticked higher, reflecting the increased speculative interest.
NIO’s next earnings report is expected on June 2, which may be adding fuel to the positioning.
Year-to-date, NIO is up 7.25%. Its current market cap stands at $12.48 billion.
XPeng is also having a strong week, up 14% as of Thursday afternoon and on track to snap a three-week losing streak.
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