Matt, the host of the MoonLambo channel, argues that crypto is nearing the end of a mid-cycle correction rather than entering a prolonged bear market, pointing to a fresh PMI reading above 55 as a key macro signal.
In the latest YouTube episode, he says XRP has not been “poised like this” in close to a decade and contends that a broader altcoin rally could arrive far sooner than bearish forecasts suggest.
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At the time of recording, XRP was trading at $1.05 and Bitcoin at $64,770, with both largely moving sideways.
Matt said the lack of volatility has damaged investor sentiment, but he views the current range as a potential accumulation period rather than evidence that crypto’s cycle has ended.
PMI at 55.6 becomes the central bullish data point
The show host focused on the latest monthly PMI reading of 55.6 for July, describing it as the first move above 55 in more than five years. A PMI above 50 generally signals economic expansion; Matt’s argument is that the more meaningful historical threshold for crypto is 55.
According to his reading of prior cycles, crypto markets have typically begun responding more forcefully three to six months after PMI reaches that level. He linked that window to macro expectations around debt refinancing, liquidity creation and a potentially stronger risk-on environment in late 2026 or early 2027.
Matt also cited the Russell 2000’s apparent breakout since late December or early January as evidence that investors are already rotating into riskier assets. Crypto, he argued, often reacts later than small-cap equities because it sits further out on the risk spectrum.
Charts point in different directions, but the host expects upside
Several analysts cited in the video see technical signs of a developing rally. Recon highlighted copper’s potential breakout, while another chart compared copper against gold, suggesting a rotation away from defensive assets and toward growth-sensitive markets. Matt said a stronger copper move could indicate rising global liquidity and risk appetite.
For XRP, chart analyst CW said a move above $1.09 would be needed to re-establish an uptrend. Ali Martinez’s levels, as cited by Matt, place support near $1.06; holding it could open targets of $1.35 and $1.64, while failure could expose $0.80 and potentially $0.62.
Matt acknowledged that XRP could still briefly fall below $1, but rejected calls for a cycle low in the fourth quarter and a new major peak only around 2030. He also discussed more aggressive projections from others, including Cryptollica’s $20,000 Ethereum scenario and a potential $10-plus XRP target, while stressing that he was not making a prediction.
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