TLDR
- Spot gold rose 0.9% to $5,232.21 on Friday, heading for a seventh straight monthly gain
- Bernstein raised its gold forecast to $4,800 in 2026 and $6,100 by 2030
- Central bank demand and ETF inflows are the key drivers behind the bullish outlook
- Tariff uncertainty and U.S.-Iran tensions are fueling safe-haven demand
- Bernstein upgraded Newmont (NEM) to Outperform with a $157 price target
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Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $5,232.21 on Friday, putting the metal on track for its seventh consecutive monthly gain. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 1.2% at $5,253.20.
Gold has gained 6.5% in February alone. Over the past seven months, it has risen 58%.
The move higher comes as traders weigh ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy and talks between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
“There are two things supporting gold. First is the tariff uncertainty in the market right now, and on the other hand, the Iran and the U.S. situation,” said ANZ analyst Soni Kumari.
The U.S. started collecting a 10% global import tariff on Tuesday. That rate is set to rise to 15% for some countries, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
U.S. and Iranian officials held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday. The Omani mediator said progress was made, and technical talks are planned for next week in Vienna.
“The latest rounds of talks have not produced a clear outcome, leaving geopolitical risks present but not escalating,” said Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a three-month low on Friday, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold — a tailwind the metal has benefited from before.
Bernstein’s Long-Term Outlook
Brokerage firm Bernstein raised its long-term gold price targets, now forecasting $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by 2030.
Analyst Bob Brackett built the forecast around a framework focused on net central bank demand and ETF flows, alongside the expected impact of U.S. rate cuts.
Central bank purchases slowed in 2025 but remain well above pre-2022 levels. Survey data shows 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next year.
ETF holdings have climbed strongly since mid-2024. Brackett described ETFs as a “swing” factor — one that can amplify price moves when inflows pick up.
The market currently prices in two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Brackett noted that gold has risen an average of 6.53% in the twelve months following rate cuts, implying a potential total return of around 13% from cuts alone.
Newmont Upgrade
Bernstein also upgraded Newmont (NEM) to Outperform, setting a price target of $157. The firm raised its EBITDA forecast for the miner by 26% to $21.9 billion, driven by its revised gold outlook.
NEM was up 2.33% on the day.
Elsewhere in precious metals, spot silver rose 4.4% to $92.20 an ounce, heading for a 6.2% monthly gain. Spot platinum climbed 5.3% to a four-week high of $2,393.80, while palladium gained 1.5% to $1,810.60.
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