Bitcoin is approaching a technical milestone that could strengthen the case for a broader recovery, with its key 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages on the verge of forming a fully bullish alignment for the first time since mid-2025.
The setup comes as Bitcoin trades near $86,400 after a strong recovery in recent months. While the cryptocurrency has struggled to break decisively above the 87,000-87,100 resistance area, its longer-term trend has continued to improve.
Bitcoin Nears a Full Bullish Moving-Average Alignment
A bullish moving-average alignment occurs when the 50-day moving average rises above the 100-day average, while the 100-day average moves above the 200-day average. Traders often view this structure as evidence that short-, medium- and long-term momentum is moving in the same direction.
Bitcoin is now just one crossover away from completing that formation.
The 50-day moving average currently stands at around $79,495, already above the longer-term averages. The 100-day average is around $79,493 and continues to rise, while the 200-day average is approximately $79,539.
If the 100-day average moves above the 200-day line, Bitcoin will have the full 50-day/100-day/200-day bullish stack.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk that the crossover would restore the bullish order of the three averages for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025.
Moving averages are commonly used to identify an asset’s underlying trend. When shorter-term averages move above longer-term ones, it suggests that recent price action is becoming stronger relative to the longer-term trend.
For Bitcoin, the potential crossover could therefore provide technical confirmation that its recent recovery has more staying power than a short-term bounce.
Bitcoin’s price with key moving averages. (Source: CoinDesk)
Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces Resistance Near $87,000
The improving technical picture follows a significant recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
BTC gained more than 40% during the third quarter, climbing toward $87,000 before momentum slowed. As of October 5, Bitcoin was trading around $86,400, according to CoinMarketCap data, up roughly 1.9% over 24 hours.
The market remains focused on the 87,000 area, where Bitcoin recently faced renewed selling pressure.
Bitcoin has, however, maintained an important support zone around 83,000. Holding this area would preserve the current recovery structure and leave room for another attempt at the $87,000 resistance.
A break below $83,000 could weaken the recovery and expose Bitcoin to a deeper pullback toward $80,000.
Momentum has also cooled from September’s stronger advance. The relative strength index, or RSI, has fallen from near overbought territory to around 52. That points to weaker upward momentum but does not yet confirm a broader reversal.
The 84,000 – 86,500 range is another area traders are watching. Sustained buying within this zone could support another move toward recent highs.
A Stronger Dollar Could Complicate the Recovery
Bitcoin’s improving technical structure is developing against a less favorable macroeconomic backdrop.
The cryptocurrency’s recent advance has coincided with a stronger U.S. Dollar Index. A rising dollar can pressure risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies by tightening financial conditions and reducing demand for alternative assets.
That may help explain why Bitcoin has struggled to extend its rally despite improving moving averages.
Still, the continued rise of the longer-term averages suggests that the recovery has not been erased by the recent consolidation.
Subburaj said the emerging crossover confirms that the recovery has endured, while cautioning that the signal itself does not guarantee further gains.
Past Crossovers Have Delivered Mixed Results
Bitcoin’s history shows that bullish moving-average alignments can precede major rallies, but they are far from foolproof.
One of the strongest examples appeared on October 27, 2020, when Bitcoin traded around $13,600. The bullish structure remained in place until May 2021, during which Bitcoin climbed to a then-record high above $64,000.
Another alignment emerged in November 2023. Bitcoin subsequently more than doubled, rising from roughly $35,000 to around $73,000 by May 2024.
However, other signals have been much less rewarding.
The bullish alignment formed in June 2025 lasted around 97 days, but Bitcoin gained only modestly, rising from approximately $106,000 to $112,000. A similar setup in June 2024 lasted just 20 days before Bitcoin fell about 10%.
That history highlights the key limitation of the indicator: a moving-average crossover confirms a trend but does not predict how long it will last.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said.
Holding the 50-Day Average Is the Key Test
For now, one of the most important levels is the 50-day moving average near $79,500.
Subburaj said the more consequential test will be whether Bitcoin can remain above that average during its next correction.
A sustained move below the 50-day average would indicate weakening short-term momentum and could undermine the bullish setup.
For now, Bitcoin remains above its key support levels, while the 100-day moving average is closing in on the 200-day average.
If that crossover occurs and Bitcoin continues to hold above its short-term trend line, it could provide the clearest technical indication in more than a year that the cryptocurrency’s broader recovery is gaining strength.
But with Bitcoin still facing resistance near $87,000 and a stronger dollar weighing on risk assets, traders will need more than a technical crossover to confirm that another major rally is underway.
