TLDR
- MCD hit a 52-week low of $259.85, down 16% over the past year
- Spicy Chicken McNuggets return nationwide September 1 for a limited time
- Q2 U.S. comparable sales rose just 0.8%, with guest counts declining
- Benjamin Edwards Inc. cut its MCD position by 20.7% in Q2
- Average analyst price target sits at $322.96 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus
McDonald’s stock hit a 52-week low of $259.85 this week, putting the stock down roughly 16% over the past year and 20% over the last six months. The drop has drawn attention from both analysts and institutional investors reassessing their positions.
To try to bring customers back, McDonald’s is relaunching Spicy Chicken McNuggets nationwide on September 1. The product, which uses cayenne and chili peppers in McDonald’s signature tempura batter, has been off the menu since 2024.
The timing is deliberate. U.S. customer traffic has been under pressure, and McDonald’s needs a reason for people to visit.
Q2 Numbers Tell the Story
Second-quarter U.S. comparable sales rose just 0.8%, and that gain came mostly from customers spending more per visit, not from more visits. Comparable guest counts actually declined.
Globally, the picture was a bit brighter. Global comparable sales rose 1.3%, revenue climbed 4%, and diluted earnings per share increased 6% to $3.32.
McDonald’s digital business remains a bright spot. Loyalty-member systemwide sales topped $40 billion over the trailing 12 months, and 90-day active loyalty users grew 13% to nearly 220 million.
Rivals Are Pushing Hard
The competition for chicken customers is real. Burger King recently upgraded its chicken nuggets with new breading and more sauce options. Wendy’s is offering 10-piece nuggets for $1.99 through its app until September 27.
Whether limited-time products like Spicy McNuggets can drive traffic without forcing McDonald’s into deeper discounting is the key question investors are watching.
On the institutional side, Benjamin Edwards Inc. trimmed its MCD position by 20.7% in Q2, selling 46,060 units. That said, several other firms added to their positions during the same period, including GTS Securities, which grew its holding by 153.9%.
Insider activity is also on the radar. In June, insider Joseph Erlinger sold 5,252 units at an average price of $284.32, cutting his position by more than 40%.
Analyst price targets have been coming down across the board. RBC Capital, Bernstein, and KeyBanc all lowered targets, now ranging from $286 to $305. Deutsche Bank went the other direction, raising its target to $345 with a Buy rating.
The average analyst price target currently stands at $322.96, with 15 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and one Strong Buy.
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