SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Finally Bounces After Four Brutal Weeks of Losses – CoinCentral

TLDR

• SpaceX Q2 revenue hit $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, beating Wall Street’s $6.8 billion estimate
• EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, crushing the $2.1 billion consensus
• Stock is up 7.8% this week, on track to snap a four-week losing streak
• Argus upgraded SPCX to Buy with a $160 price target
• Retail investors are sitting on roughly $4.5 billion in losses since the IPO

SpaceX stock climbed more than 6% on Friday to around $116.82, putting the stock on track to end a brutal four-week losing streak that had wiped out 33% of its value.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The bounce follows a strong second-quarter earnings report released Tuesday evening. SpaceX posted revenues of $7.8 billion, a 92% jump year-over-year, well above the Street’s $6.8 billion forecast. EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, against expectations of around $2.1 billion.

The stock came to market at $135 in its IPO and has had a rough ride since then, falling as much as 50% from its $225.64 peak. It is currently trading roughly 15% below its IPO price.

Retail Investors Feeling the Pain

Retail investors received about 20% of the shares in SpaceX’s record IPO. Since then, they have kept buying. JPMorgan data shows retail inflows of at least $3.6 billion in the eight-plus weeks after the IPO.

With an estimated average purchase price of around $150 per share, those investors are sitting on combined losses of roughly $4.5 billion. Institutions, by contrast, were able to sell at higher prices and avoided the worst of the drawdown.

Analysts Turning More Positive

Argus upgraded SPCX to Buy from Hold on Thursday and set a $160 price target. The firm applied a 20x multiple to its 2027 revenue estimate of $110 billion. Argus flagged that the rapid payback on capital expenditures, mostly AI infrastructure, was a key positive.

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Raymond James reiterated a Strong Buy with an $800 price target. Bernstein raised its target to $248, citing higher revenue assumptions. Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating at $246. UBS reiterated Buy at $210, and Mizuho held Outperform at $200.

Looking further out, analysts now project 2027 revenue of around $102 billion, up from $72 billion at the end of July, per FactSet.

One overhang still weighing on the stock is the lockup expiration schedule. Mizuho noted that roughly 911.5 million insider shares are set to become eligible for sale. More tranches are expected over the next year, which could keep pressure on the stock.

SpaceX signaled a year-end 2026 revenue run rate approaching $100 billion, well above earlier forecasts. The stock is up 7.8% for the week heading into Friday’s close.