An anonymous trader on Polymarket has pocketed over $9 million in profit following the 0-0 draw between Spain and Cape Verde in the opening match of Group H at the 2026 World Cup on June 15 in Atlanta. This shocking result turned positions betting against Spain into massive payouts, whereas the pre-match market had priced Spain with approximately a 92% chance of winning. According to data shared by Lookonchain, the account “fishalive” was behind this trade; the “Spain not to win” position alone brought in over $4.7 million.
The Winning Trade
Before kickoff, Polymarket priced the probability of a Spain victory at a very high level. Spain entered the World Cup as a title favorite, while Cape Verde was making its tournament debut and was placed deep in the underdog group. At a price around 92%, buying Spain to win offered only a thin upside but carried the risk of losing almost the entire capital if the match did not end in a Spanish victory.
“fishalive” stood on the opposite side. According to the New York Post, this account placed about $427,000 on Spain not to win, meaning Cape Verde only needed a draw or a win for the position to be paid out. When the match ended 0-0, this bet paid out over $4.7 million.
Lucky or insider info?
Someone created a new wallet, spent $4.22M betting that Spain would not win and Cabo Verde +2.5 when most people expected Spain to win.
The match ended in a draw, and both bets won.
In just a few hours, the wallet made over $9M in profit.… pic.twitter.com/sZCmP8wfe2
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 16, 2026
The win was even larger thanks to a spread position. According to Lookonchain, a new account/wallet linked to “fishalive” spent a total of about $4.22 million across two markets: Spain not to win and Cape Verde +2.5. This account received a payout of about $4.74 million from the market “Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?” and about $8.54 million from the spread market “Spain (-2.5)”. The total profit for the day was displayed at over $9.06 million.
Market Shock
The match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium did not return the result that the pre-match odds implied. Spain controlled about 74% of possession, fired 27 shots, and created enough chances for an expected goals (xG) of over 2, but still failed to pierce Cape Verde’s defense. On the other side, Cape Verde barely created any clear chances, but still kept a clean sheet thanks to a standout performance by goalkeeper Vozinha, who made 7 saves.
It was this mismatch between match statistics and the final result that caused a sharp reversal in the market. For Polymarket, this is a clear example of tail risk: an outcome considered low-probability can still happen, and when the favorite is overpriced, the payout for the side going against the market will increase very rapidly.
The Other Side Of The Trade
While “fishalive” won big, the account “bettor619” became an example of the risk of standing on the “near-certain” scenario. According to Cinco Días/El País, citing Bloomberg, this trader placed nearly $1.1 million on Spain to win. If Spain had won, the expected profit was only about $85,000, but when the match ended in a draw, this position was almost completely wiped out.
Buyers of the Spain-to-win side accepted the possibility of losing almost all their capital in exchange for a return of less than 10%. With odds around 92%, this trade was only safe if the market was almost flawless. The 0-0 result showed that the market could be right about the stronger team and the match dynamics, but still wrong about the most important variable: the final outcome.
The report also noted that the Spain-Cape Verde match recorded about $64 million in trading volume on Polymarket. For a group stage match, this figure shows that the World Cup is drawing significant liquidity into sports markets, especially in bets where the favorites are priced very heavily.
Polymarket’s Sports Push
The Spain-Cape Verde shock occurred just as Polymarket is expanding aggressively into sports. With the 2026 World Cup, the platform has a dense schedule of events and a series of secondary markets around results, scores, and handicaps.
The Spain-Cape Verde match demonstrates the level of liquidity that these markets can attract. The trading volume of around $64 million was not just on the question of whether Spain would win or not, but also on side bets like Cape Verde +2.5.
The case of “fishalive” hit both of those layers: Spain not to win and Cape Verde +2.5 both won after the 0-0 scoreline. It was this combination of moneyline and spread that pushed profits far beyond a single bet, while showing that sports prediction markets on Polymarket are operating more and more like a financial market centered around each match.
What To Watch Next
Cape Verde will face Uruguay on June 21, but what is worth watching on Polymarket is how the market reacts to this team after the draw against Spain. Pre-match odds, trading volume, and spread markets will show whether traders will continue to pay a massive premium for favorites or start to be more cautious with heavily skewed bets.
The direct impact on the broader crypto market may be limited, but for prediction markets, this is a notable signal of the liquidity flowing into major sporting events. For Polymarket, the point to monitor is whether subsequent World Cup markets will continue to attract heavy liquidity after “fishalive’s” over $9 million win. The fact that the wallet was newly created, according to Lookonchain, makes the story more eye-catching, though there is currently no public evidence to suggest this account had any unusual informational advantage.
