TLDR
- Nvidia reports Q4 FY26 earnings February 25, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $1.52 (up 71% year-over-year) and revenue of $65.58 billion (up 67%)
- Top analysts from Wolfe Research, KeyBanc, and UBS maintain Buy ratings, citing Nvidia’s strong fundamentals, pricing power from new Rubin chips, and CUDA software moat
- Alphabet announced $175-$185 billion in 2026 capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, benefiting both Nvidia and Broadcom through GPU and custom chip orders
- Nvidia trades at just 25 times forward earnings despite 61% expected Q1 growth, making it cheaper than Alphabet (28x) and Broadcom (34x)
- NVDA stock has 37 Buy ratings with average price target of $260.38, indicating 42.4% upside potential from current levels
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Nvidia heads into its fourth quarter Fiscal 2026 earnings report on February 25 with Wall Street analysts expressing strong confidence in the chip giant’s ability to exceed expectations. The stock has climbed 35% over the past year, though it’s down nearly 2% in 2026 as investors worry about AI competition and potential market bubbles.
Wall Street projects Nvidia will report earnings per share of $1.52, representing 71% year-over-year growth. Revenue estimates sit at $65.58 billion, up 67% from the prior year. Those numbers would mark another quarter of impressive growth for the company that’s become synonymous with AI infrastructure.
Chris Caso from Wolfe Research recently reiterated his Buy rating, arguing the recent pullback has made Nvidia’s valuation attractive again. The analyst sees a clear path to higher estimates for calendar years 2026 and 2027, driven by pricing strength from the company’s new Rubin and Rubin Ultra chips. Caso raised his Fiscal 2028 EPS estimate to nearly $11.50, about $1.50 above consensus expectations.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh echoed that optimism last week, highlighting Nvidia’s unique position to benefit from AI and machine learning growth in data centers. He pointed to the company’s CUDA software platform as a major barrier to entry that limits competitive threats. The software ecosystem has become just as valuable as Nvidia’s hardware, locking customers into its platform.
Alphabet’s Spending Spree Boosts Outlook
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri increased his price target to $245 from $235, expecting Q4 revenue to hit $67.5 billion—about $2.5 billion above guidance. He referenced AMD’s recent results to suggest Nvidia could see several billion dollars in additional China revenue. For Q1 FY27, Arcuri projects a revenue outlook of $76 billion, ahead of investor expectations in the $74-$75 billion range.
Alphabet’s recent earnings call delivered major news for Nvidia investors. The company announced capital expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion for 2026, confirming another year of massive AI spending. That money will flow to computing providers as Alphabet builds out infrastructure for both internal use and its Google Cloud platform.
Alphabet uses custom Tensor Processing Units designed with Broadcom for internal applications like Gemini and Google DeepMind. But for Google Cloud customers who want flexibility to move workloads between providers, Nvidia’s GPUs remain the standard. The choice of hardware depends on whether customers prioritize cost optimization or ecosystem flexibility.
Valuation Gap Creates Opportunity
The numbers paint an interesting picture when comparing these AI players. Alphabet expects 18% revenue growth in Q1, while Broadcom and Nvidia are projected to deliver 28% and 61% growth respectively. Yet Nvidia trades at just 25 times forward earnings, cheaper than both Alphabet at 28 times and Broadcom at 34 times.
That disconnect has caught analysts’ attention. Nvidia’s combination of faster growth and lower valuation multiples makes it stand out among AI infrastructure stocks. Broadcom’s premium reflects expectations for its custom chip business, with analysts projecting 52% and 38% revenue growth for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
The consensus on Wall Street remains overwhelmingly positive for Nvidia. The stock carries 37 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell. The average price target of $260.38 implies 42.4% upside from current levels. Major hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet continue committing to high AI infrastructure spending, creating sustained demand for Nvidia’s products.
Investors will get their next major data point on February 25 when Nvidia reports results. The company’s GTC event scheduled for next month could provide additional catalysts. Arcuri noted some investor skepticism about Nvidia’s ability to maintain its 75% gross margins as competition from Google and Broadcom’s TPU chips intensifies, but he remains confident in the near-term outlook.
